It wasn't supposed to be that much of an election. Most handicappers agreed that Republicans were likely to make modest gains of a few seats in both the House and Senate. Those handicappers apparently missed voter anger at Congress' handling of the Clinton scandal and lack of progress on bread and butter issues important to the citizenry. This along with a greater than expected turnout among the Democrat's base resulted in small Democratic gains in the House of Representatives and status quo ante bellum in the Senate.
Stunned, angry and shell-shocked Republicans took only 72 hours to depose House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Those Republicans who survive to return to Washington this month for the 106th Congress will face the smallest majority in the House of Representatives since the Republic's founding. There are currently two schools of thought regarding the product that will come out of the nation's capital over the next two years:
- School of Thought #1 could simply be labeled "gridlock." With a majority of only five seats in the House of Representatives, Republicans will be unable to put together a working majority to do anything except name federal buildings. While the members of the majority party all call themselves Republicans, a plethora of views and agendas exists just below the surface. Social conservatives, economic conservatives, libertarians and moderates, to name a few, fill a majority where now any six members can bring business to a screeching halt. Congress must also dispose of the Clinton impeachment trial, and potential censure agreement, which still has the potential to significantly disrupt business. Also lingering over the horizon, is the presidential election of 2000, which traditionally acts as a drag on legislative productivity.
- School of Thought #2 offers a far rosier outlook for the next two years. Under this scenario, both Republicans and Democrats take away from the election an understanding that voters are likely to punish all incumbents should little be accomplished during the 106th Congress. With a more pragmatic leader in new Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, the two parties are able to negotiate solutions on managed care, saving social security, tax cuts, etc. Additionally, President Clinton, desperately worried about his place in history, works with the Congress to find common ground on the country's problems.
The real outcome will most likely fall somewhere between the two scenarios as Congress and the President attempt to pass legislation where possible, while keeping an eye toward the elections of 2000. Issues that enjoyed a modicum of bipartisan support, such as reform of the banking system, will likely have a chance at passage. Partisan and overreaching initiatives supported by only one party will not fare as well.
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