Before embarking to Capitol Hill, the AWPA representatives attended a General Session with several very knowledgeable speakers to give them a sense of the political atmosphere on Capitol Hill. Political prognosticator Charlie Cook gave a repeat performance before the AWPA audience, and gave his outlook and predictions for the upcoming elections. Overall, he sees a very strong chance that the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives. However, the Senate is a different story. Currently there are eight dead even races - four of which are Democratic and four Republican. On the Democratic side New Jersey, Missouri, Minnesota and South Dakota are in jeopardy. For the Republicans, the troubled seats are in Texas, Arkansas, New Hampshire and Colorado. Currently the Democrats control the Senate by only one seat. Charlie also predicts that Republicans will lose 3 to 5 governorships this year. This is due to a strong anti-incumbency movement not seen on the federal level. Looking towards the future and next presidential election, Charlie made some interesting points. Historically, the last 13 months before the election are the only ones that affect a sitting president's reelection chances. Basically, what happens in the first 36 months does not usually play a role in whether or not a president gets reelected. As for our society's voting patterns over the last couple of decades, there have been some unique changes. America's voters are now split right down the middle between those who tend to vote democrat and those who tend to vote republican. In the past, people living in rural areas and the suburbs consistently voted on the conservative side, while their counterparts living in the cities tended to be more liberal. Now we are seeing a shift in the suburbs with only the southern suburbs tending toward republicans, and those in non-southern suburbs shifting to democrats. This is partially explained by the large number of city dwellers now moving to the suburbs. There has also been a decrease in the number of rural voters. Charlie indicated that this equilibrium will be around for awhile, with the House having a very slim majority of one party over the other, and the Senate majority held by only one or two seats. This will last until one party either self-destructs or starts hitting "home runs." He concluded that this equilibrium could lead to partisan stalemate in the Congress, and possibly some bad decisions in the future. He advised AWPA to keep the grassroots channels open to lay the groundwork and help avoid these bad decisions. The next speaker's presentation was on the importance of grassroots action. Michael Dunn, a leading expert on grassroots programs and motivating participants, gave an energized presentation on why wire manufacturers must be involved in the political process. Quite bluntly, Mike informed the audience, "the only big decisions that will be made during these stalemated times in Congress are those being pushed by grassroots efforts." He outlined two approaches to grassroots lobbying: Quantitative: Influence = the quantity of people who contact their legislators. Qualitative: Influence does not derive strength from number, but rather relationships between constituents and their lawmakers. This is the more effective method. According to a model developed by Michael Dunn & Associates, out of an average congressional district consisting of 600,000 people, only about 2,500 from both parties really have influence with the legislator. This small group of voters consists of those who contributed to the campaign and volunteered to help get the legislator elected, and those who convinced others to do the same. He advised that now is the time to hold fundraisers. Individual efforts will determine whether you influence lawmakers. If you volunteer, raise and donate money, and find others to do so as well, your concerns will be heard by that lawmaker. He reminded the audience that a fundraiser cannot be organized by your company, but rather should be in your home and hosted as an individual. Following the General Session, attendees went to Capitol Hill to meet with their legislators, armed with the Wire Industry data for the nation and their particular states, as well as fact sheets on why they should co-sponsor HR 2770, the Transparency and Fairness Trade Act (see related article on page 7) and oppose legislation mandating an ergonomics standard. Over 80 offices were visited ? many with the legislator in person. The final day of the Conference was dedicated to Committee meetings. If you would like to read the minutes of a certain meeting, you can find them on the AWPA website. Michael Dunn gets AWPA members energized about their grassroots outreach to their legislators.
Charlie Cook, political pundit, presents his views on upcoming election.
 American Wire Producers Association |
